A Risk Analysis of Prominent Risks Associated with Real Time Gross Settlement System of Fund Transfer in Zambia
Abstract
Abstract— Risk analysis is a concept that has attracted many researchers and practitioners in both business and project management fields. This is because both businesses and projects aim at avoiding and or minimising losses while maximising gains. This view was adopted when undertaking the current study whose aim was to perform a risk analysis of risks associated with the Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) operated by the Bank of Zambia. The RTGS System is a money transfer system intended to transfer funds safely, quickly and conveniently but the implementation approach in Zambia was done without a comprehensive risk analysis. It is against this background that the researchers undertook to simulate the risks of the RTGS in order to classify risks according to severity on business transactions.
Literature relevant to answer the research questions was reviewed. The research design used was descriptive and explorative in which semi structured questionnaires were used to collect data. Responses from users of the RTGS were coded and used to generate descriptive statistics which were in turn used as entry parameters prior to simulation.
The simulation outputs revealed that fraud, liquidity, human, settlement, replacement and systematic risks were high risks. High risk meant that they are highly likely to occur with very severe consequences. On the other hand, legal, credit, fire, technology, hacking and operation risks were found to be medium risks. They can occur in as much as they cannot and the consequences range from sever to bearable. Lastly, the only low risk was found to be theft risk. This implies that the chance of losing money through theft when using the RTGS is negligible
Finally, the research has revealed that the RTGS system is not a risk free facility and can yield catastrophic consequences to the business transactions.
References
Allsopp P.,Summers B. and Veale J. (2008) The Future of Real-Time Gross Settlement: The Role of the Central Bank.
Cooper, D., Grey, S., Raymond, G., and Walker, P., (2005) Project Risk Management Guidelines: Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd
Glenday G. (1989). Risk Sharing in Project Appraisal: Canadian Journal of Programme Evaluation. 12
Gratt, L.B. (1987). Risk Analysis or Risk Assessment: A proposal for consistent deï¬nitions. Uncertainty in Risk Management, Risk Asses-sment, Risk Management and Decision Making. Plenum Press, New York, pp. 241–249
Klemetti, A., (2006) Risk Management in Construction Project Networks. Helsinki University of Technology Laboratory of Industrial Management Report. Espoo
Kremlyak and Kafol (2014) in Allsopp P.,Summers B. and Veale J. (2008) The Future of Real-Time Gross Settlement: The Role of the Central Bank.
Lyons, T. and Skitmore, M. (2004). Project risk management in the Queensland engineering construction industry: a survey. International Journal of Project Management, 22(1), pp. 51-61
Marchewka T. (2003) Information Technology Project Management. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Merna, T. (2002). Risk Management at Corporate, Strategic Business and Project Level. MPhil Thesis, UMIST, Manchester.
Nicholas John and Steyn Herman (2008) Project Management for Business, Engineering and Technology. 3rd Ed., Canada.
Passenheim, O. (2009). Project Management. Book boon, 2009. Available: http://bookboon. com/ en/ project management-ebook
Potts, K., (2008) Construction cost management, learning from case studies. Abingdon: Taylor Francis
Pouliquen, L.Y. (1970). Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal. Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, MD.
Power, M. J. (2007.). Handbook of Cognition and Emotion (pp. 45-60). New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Project Management Institute (2004). A guide to the project management body of knowledge, Project Management Institute, Pennsylvania, Newton Square.
Rescher, N. (1983). Risk: A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Management. University Press of America, Lanham, MD.
Radu, L-D., 2009. Qualitative, semi-quantitative and, quantitative methods for risk assessment: case of the financial audit. [pdf] University of Iasi, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
Rowe, W.D. (1977). An Anatomy of Risk. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Sanvido, V., Grobler, F., Parfitt, K., Guvenis, M., and Coyle, M., (1992).Critical Success Factors for Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118 (1), pp. 94-111
Winch, G.M. (2002). Managing Construction Projects: An Information Processing Approach. Blackwell, Oxford.
World Bank Group, (2008) Payment Systems Worldwide: A Snapshot (Outcomes of the Global Payment Systems Survey 2008).
Zou, P.X.W, Zhang, G. and Wang, J. (2006), Identifying Risks in Construction Projects: Life Cycle and Stakeholder Perspectives, Proceedings of the 12th Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference, Auckland, New Zealand 22 -25 Jan 2006.
